It’s still very early in the hurricane prediction business, but we already have two major forecasts for this year’s season, which starts June 1. They both agree that the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will have about the same number of storms as in an average year, but one prediction says the hurricanes we do have will be just as destructive as they’ve been in the past two years.
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. specializes in predicting hurricane landfalls, which is what we really want to know. They use ClimatePulse technology, developed by David Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist; it tracks landfall cycles dating from the 1800s. The past few years, with an unusually active number of named storms and destructive hurricanes, fall into a 70-year cycle that continues today.
As a result, Dilley predicts about an average number of named storms (13, compared to an average of 12) and six hurricanes, which is the average, for this year. But due to warmer ocean water and the 70-year cycle, Dilley predicts that two major hurricanes will hit the U.S. this year with an above-average destructive force. He also says that one potential major hurricane will threaten parts of the Caribbean.
For its part, Colorado State University issued an early hurricane forecast at the end of December, based on five different scenarios. Three of the five suggest an average or below average hurricane season. CSU will release an updated forecast on April 4, and it will have much more detailed information. Read more:
http://www.news9.com/story/40018971/2019-hurricane-predictions-2-major-us-impact-storms
