This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has gotten off to a bad start, and now NOAA says things may get worse. Indeed, in its annual mid-season update, NOAA now says there’s a 65 percent chance that we’ll have above-normal activity for the rest of the season, which ends on Nov. 30.
“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favors above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic season, including the potential return of La Niña in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The center says the chance of a near-normal season from now on is 25 percent, and the chance of a below-normal season is just 10 percent. The season started on June 1. Five storms have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa (pictured above) being the fifth earliest named storm on record; it moved up Florida’s west coast on July 6.
NOAA is now forecasting 15 to 21 named storms for the rest of the season, instead of the 13 to 20 it predicted in its May forecast; and seven to ten hurricanes, instead of six to ten.
The reasons for possible increased storm activity include warmer sea temperatures, reduced vertical wind shear, and an enhanced west Africa monsoon season. NOAA says these conditions are in addition to the continuing warming phase of the Atlantic Ocean current system that has favored more active hurricane seasons since 1995. Read more:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlantic-hurricane-season-shows-no-signs-of-slowing
