Was Hurricane Isaias (pictured above) just a warm-up act? A harbinger of things to come?
In a new update, NOAA warns that we could have an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season this year and it could include as many as 11 major hurricanes. The new forecast comes in NOAA’s annual August update, called the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. The previous forecast was published in May.
Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say that atmospheric and ocean conditions are ideal for fueling new storms; they warn of a potentially record-setting hurricane season.
So far this season, which started June 1, there have been nine named storms, a record. Historically, just two named storms hit by early August.
“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks,” said Wilbur Ross, the U .S. Commerce Secretary.
In its new update, NOAA is calling for 19 to 25 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or more). Seven to 11 of those are expected to become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
An average season has 12 named storms, including six hurricanes (with three major hurricanes).
NOAA says the conditions that make for such an active hurricane season include warmer-than-average sea temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon season. It expects these conditions to continue for the next several months.
The season ends Nov. 30.
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin
