We’ve been lucky so far, but that may change before too long, according to the new mid-season hurricane estimate from NOAA.
So far, the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, has seen just three named storms and no hurricanes. But now we’re heading into the peak hurricane months, and NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is calling for an above-average season for the months ahead.
This recent update is similar to NOAA’s original forecast, in May, but now forecasters say the likelihood of an above-normal season is 60 percent; the original forecast was 65 percent.
Now, NOAA is predicting 14 to 20 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or more, including 6 to 10 hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or more, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or more. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70 percent degree of confidence.
“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development,” said Rick Spinrad, the NOAA Administrator, “and we anticipate that more storms are on the way.” This forecast for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season is the seventh year in a row.
NOAA listed several conditions that will contribute to an active hurricane season, including La Niña, which has been in place on and off for the past two years. It affects many aspects of the weather, including the drought in many western states. Because of changes in wind direction and speed, La Niña can actually enhance Atlantic hurricane activity.
Other factors include weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African monsoon season, and higher-than-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures.
NOAA emphasizes that its mid-season outlook is for overall activity, and is not a landfall forecast, which cannot be predicted long-term. Read more:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-still-expects-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season
