It’s still too early to be precise, but this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly below average, according to the forecasting team at Colorado State University.
The CSU forecast calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes this season, which starts on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30. The long-term averages for the period from 1991 to 2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
On the other hand, the CSU team, in its first forecast for the season, did not have particularly good news for the U.S. It says the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. this year are 44 percent (vs. a long-term average of 43 percent); the odds of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast or Florida are 22 percent (vs. a long-term 21 percent); and the odds of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast are 28 percent (vs. a long-term 27 percent).
The CSU forecast uses statistics dating back to the past 40 years. It emphasizes that its April forecasts are still very early in the year, and must deal with what they call a spring predictability barrier. There are often rapid climate changes in April, making it difficult to forecast with precision.
The next CSU forecast is due on June 1, and it has proven to be more accurate over the years. NOAA is scheduled to make its first hurricane season forecast in late May.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Risk, a British forecasting organization, issued its first Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 6. It too calls for a below-average season, with 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Read more:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/13/weather/atlantic-hurricane-el-nino-season-forecast/index.html
