As if the weather hasn’t been bad enough already, now the hurricane experts at Colorado State University say it’s going to get worse, even worse than other experts had predicted.
The CSU hurricane researchers recently updated their forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season this year, predicting that it will be an above-average year because of warmer sea temperatures. They also say there is a larger-than-normal degree of uncertainty because of conflicting signals involving those temperatures and a stronger-than-normal El Niño, producing increased wind shear in the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic that actually could damage storms forming there.
The new forecast from CSU now predicts 18 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Their previous prediction called for 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
For its part, NOAA in May predicted a near-normal season, with 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
The CSU researchers said the chances of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. are above the long-term average.
The CSU forecast is based on statistical models that analyze 25 to 40 years of hurricane activity and weigh various conditions, including Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, sea-level pressures, vertical wind-shear and El Niño.
Read more: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf
