Hurricanes in the Atlantic are growing stronger faster than ever before, according to a new study. Indeed, a hurricane is now twice as likely to grow from a weak storm into a major Category 3 (or stronger) hurricane in just 24 hours.
The study, just published in Scientific Report, adds to the growing body of evidence that fast-growing major hurricanes are becoming more likely. Andra Garner, an assistant professor at Rowan University who wrote the study, says that from 2001 to 2020 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic had an 8 percent chance of strengthening from a Category 1 storm into a Category 3 or higher storm in 24 hours. By comparison, similar storms from 1970 to 1990 had only a 3 percent chance of growing that fast in the same time period.
When hurricanes grow so fast, it is very difficult to forecast how severely specific areas will be affected. Officials may not have time to order evacuations, for example.
Category 3 storms have wind speeds of 110 miles an hour or higher, and they can be extremely dangerous. Many of the worst disasters to hit the U .S. in recent years came from hurricanes that intensified quickly. In 2017, Hurricane Maria grew from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours before it made landfall in Puerto Rico and nearby islands, killing more than 3,000 people.
Tropical storms form when temperatures in the Atlantic are warmest, from June through November. As global warming continues, ocean water temperatures will continue to rise, making hurricane season ever more dangerous. “Without limiting future warming, this is a trend that we could expect to continue to get more extreme,” Dr. Garner said.
