On Thursday May 15, the NOAA National Prediction Center issued its latest forecast indicating that there is an 82% likelihood that the developing El Nino will build into one of the largest and most disruptive in a generation
The El Nino drives super-heated seawater into the eastern South Pacific off the coast of South America where it affects surface and upper-level wind and rain patterns.
In general, a “monster” El Nino will strengthen tropical revolving storms in the central and western Pacific Ocean which will potentially deliver more frequent and stronger hurricanes to Mexico and the southeastern states of the U.S.
Conversely, the opposite is true for the North Atlantic. Rising air over the super-heated water creates upper-level wind sheers over the Caribbean and across the Atlantic to the Cape Verde Islands.
This band of tropical water is the normal breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes but the upper level sheering winds keep revolving storms from building in strength.
Closer to home a strong El Nino traditionally makes for a stormier summer in California and Mexico and a wetter and warmer summer in the southeastern states and Bahamas.
